Georgia-LSU Pregame

It’s the morning of the huge Georgia-LSU game and I thought I would share some interesting college football statistics:

Pop Quiz:  A certain team has the following ranks in the following NCAA FBS Statistics.  Can you figure out who the team is?

Total Defense (yards allowed per game):  67th out of 120.
Total Offense (yards per game):  74th out of 120.
Fewest Yards Penalized (per game):  118th out of 120.
Turnover Margin (per game):  115th out of 120.
Punt Return Yardage Defense (per game): 90th out of 120.
Kickoff Return Yardage Defense (per game): 107th out of 120.
Punt Return Yardage (per punt returned: 87th out of 120.
Kickoff Return Yardage (per kickoff returned): 40th out of 120.

Answer: Georgia, of course.  Isn’t it amazing that they have won 3 out of 4 games with those stats?  They play below-median offense and defense, turn the ball over a ton, almost never create a turnover, commit jillions of penalties, can’t defend kickoffs or punts and can’t return punts.  At least they rank in the top-third of teams on kickoff returns- by the slimmest of margins.  So how have they done it?  As I dig deeper into the stats, three players really stand out:

1.  A.J. Green.  This is obvious.  He ranks 15th in the nation and first in the (we hope) more defensive-oriented SEC in receiving yards per game (107).  He has a touchdown a game in addition to a single two-point conversion and one very big blocked kick.

2. Blair Walsh.  He ranks 2nd in the nation in field goal kicking percentage at 8 for 8 (only Missouri’s Grant Ressel is higher at 10 for 10).  He has not missed an extra point.  He has 5 touchbacks in 25 kickoffs, which seems better than in years past.  He has booted two kickoffs (by my count) out of bounds, but I don’t that that’s particularly poor, either.

3. Drew Butler- This guy leads the nation in punting at 50.06 yards per punt.  Even though the punt coverage has been poor for the Dawgs, Butler’s leg has made up for it.  In fact, Georgia ranks as the 2nd-best team in the nation in net punting.

Another stat that I found noteworthy: Georgia is one of only 12 teams to have scored on every possession in the red zone this season.  However, they only have 5 TDs compared with 7 FGs.  They also have allowed opponents to score on 94% of red zone possessions, which is T108th in the country.  Opponents have scored 7 TDs to 8 FGs on 16 possessions.

All of that being said, why is everybody so in love with Georgia in this game? Those stats tell me that Georgia is not a good team and would be terrible without a few clutch performances from standout players. Blair Walsh is bound to miss a FG and what will happen to the Dawgs then? Their shaky facade of being a winning team could come crumbling down.

However, before we rule them out as a factor in today’s game, let’s take a look at how LSU ranks in some of those categories:
Total Defense (yards allowed per game): 49th out of 120.
Total Offense (yards per game): 105th out of 120.
Fewest Yards Penalized (per game): 25th out of 120.
Turnover Margin (per game): T5th out of 120.
Punt Return Yardage Defense (per game): 54th out of 120.
Kickoff Return Yardage Defense (per game): 6th out of 120.
Punt Return Yardage (per punt returned: 29th out of 120.
Kickoff Return Yardage (per kickoff returned): 117th out of 120.
Net Punting: 42nd

LSU isn’t very statistically impressive, either, but they look better than Georgia. However, that has not stopped oddsmakers from making Georgia a 3.5-point favorite.

I’m not buying it. As much as I want things to turn out otherwise, I don’t expect this game to be that close. I’ve got LSU winning 42-24 by scoring a ton of points off Georgia turnovers.

Georgia-Arkansas Preview

That was one heck of an exciting game last Saturday in Athens. I would know- I was there.

View from my seat at the UGA-SCAR game.

But exciting is different from good- this game wasn’t good. Both teams were rife with errors and plagued by inconsistency.  And the Dawgs’ inconsistency is the reason why I am tempted to pick  against them this week in Fayetteville.

However, the truth is that we don’t really know anything about Arkansas.  Are they as good as South Carolina?  Are they better?  Are they worse?  I’ve heard a lot of good things about QB Ryan Mallet and their three running backs.  And given that Gamecocks were (supposedly, anyway) not nearly as good, I’ve got to think that there’s trouble in store for that (formerly vaunted) Georgia Defense.  South Carolina was not that far from having more than 60 points on the board last week.

I don’t really know anything about the Hogs’ defense, but I do know that the Georgia offense has been incredibly frustrating to watch this year.  They are on pace to have 36 turnovers and 36 TDs.  I’m not convinced that Joe Cox is any better than Joe Tereshinski (who was replaced permanently about halfway through 2006).  Truthfully, I’m thinking that this might be the worst team that Georgia has had this decade.  Let’s hope I’m wrong.  We’ll know in a few hours

Anyway, not a whole lot else to say.  Predicted Score: Arkansas 35, UGA 27.

Georgia-OK State Recap

I always find it hard to post after a nasty loss, for a couple reasons. First, I would prefer to keep the game off of my mind. Second, it’s really hard not to be really negative and, from here on in, I’m trying not to bash the players. Coaches, on the other hand, are paid a lot of money to win and are therefore fair game. That being said, here are my thoughts.

1. One of the really key plays in this game was Perrish Cox’s 74-yard kickoff return to start the second half. How could Georgia let this happen? They had just made nice stop at the end of the first half to keep themselves within 3 points. Then, this return happened and they were soon down 10, never to come close again.  This is a continuation of a troubling trend for the Dawgs; after being so good on special teams during Richt’s early years, they’ve had a lot of difficulties in more recent years.  I wanted to find the man to blame for this, but Georgia doesn’t list a special teams coach on their website.  I wanted to know if this was common, so I checked some other teams out.  Florida (whose website is as annoying as their team, by the way) doesn’t list one, but Tennessee does.  Virgina Tech doesn’t, but Texas does.  Alabama and LSU both list someone in charge of special teams.  Now I don’t claim to be an expert on the dynamics of a coaching staff, but I couldn’t find a limit on coaches in the NCAA rulebook- the only limitation that I could find was that total non-uniformed staff is limited to 60.  So it seems very strange to me that Georgia does not have a coach dedicated to this very important facet of the game.

"What's a special team?"

2.  Lately, Georgia has an uncanny ability to not force turnovers.  As I watched the game, I kept waiting and waiting for that big play from the defense that could turn the game around.  It never came.  Meanwhile, the Dawgs fumbled twice and threw a pick, leading to a -3 turnover margin.  Last season was much of the same- a -3 turnover margin for the season, good for T73 nationally.  The great 2007 season was good (+9, T18 nationally) , but 2006 (-1, T68) was as mediocre as 2008.  The obvious person to blame for this is defensive coordinator/secondary coach Willie Martinez.  Now I know that the defense performed pretty well statisically against the Cowboys, but Georgia dropped a couple interceptions and couldn’t force a fumble.  In other words, the defense played reasonably, but not well enough to bail out the anemic offense.

"Focus on getting the ball, not on laying a big hit!"

3.  The offense was about as bad as I’ve seen.  How much of this was due to Joe Cox being sick?  We won’t know until later in the season.  I was so giddy after they drove down the field with ease on the first drive.  But after that, it was downright nasty.  I guess Mike Bobo isn’t that good without studs like Stafford and Moreno.  If things continue at this pace, Georgia will be lucky to win 6 games.

"I have no idea what's going on right now"

Georgia-Oklahoma State Preview

Here are some quick hits on how I feel about the huge game today:

1.  Is the whole season riding on this game? A win would certain be big- the Dawgs could jump into the top 10 and gain mad respect, both for themselves and their conference. And it would be a good step toward putting together another 10-win season, which is my personal goal for this team. But a loss is not the end of the world, especially if Joe Cox is sick. I would argue that every SEC game is more important and the rivalry game against Tech is a more important non-conference game. So this is really only the 10th-most important game of the season.

2. I’ll believe that Oklahoma State is a top 10 team when I see it. This is a program that has never been in the preseason top 10 before. In fact, their 16 ranking to finish last season is the only time this decade that they’ve finished in the top 25. They did finish #7 in 1984, but even that’s not very impressive. Oklahoma State reminds me a lot of Texas Tech actually- a lower-echelon Big 12 team with lots of hype but not really good enough to compete at the highest level.

3. I think that the matchups actually favor Georgia, so long as Zac Robinson and Dez Bryant don’t go crazy in the passing game. I don’t expect the UGA secondary to shut those guys down, but if the front seven can shut down the run, then watch out! Of course, if the D-line and linebackers have tackling issues, then this might turn into a replay of the West Virginia game. On the other side of the ball, it’s tough to gauge how the Dawg offense will perform, but as I said yesterday, I expect them to be good. If Cox is indeed sick, though, all bets are off.

Conclusion- A lot of unknowns make this a hard game to predict. However, I think that Mark Richt will have his team up for the challenge. Willie Martinez has something to prove this year and his D will play lights-out today. And by lights-out, I mean surrendering 21 points. The Georgia offense bests that easily (assuming Cox is okay- if he’s not then State probably wins). Final score- UGA 35- Ok State 21.

2009 Georgia Season Preview- Defense

The real question on my mind is this: has the defense improved from last season?  The answer, I think, is yes.

The defense, especially Willie Martinez is really angry about what happened last season; they proved it in the Capital One Bowl.

Get off my back!

After a whole offseason to think about it (and recover from their injuries) they’ll show up bigger, faster and better this season.  Depth and talent at linebacker and defensive tackle will make running the ball a chore for the opposition.  So all that we have to do is stop the pass, right?

Unfortunately, stopping the pass will be a little more difficult, although I was surprised to find out that UGA was ranked as high as 32nd in passing defense last season.  The defensive end position is not very deep, however I am looking forward to see how converted linebacker Marcus Washington, who sat out 2008 with an injury, performs. The DEs are so key to success this season- when Georgia topped the Gators in 2007 they sacked Tim Tebow six times- thrice by an end (all Marcus Howard). Pass pressure is so key to the season.

Of course good play in the secondary is also really important and who knows what will happen with this group.  The fact that they spent the most of the preseason nursing injuries really concerns me.  There’s not doubt that they are all very talented and if they can live up to their potential, then this defense has the change to be really mean.  Of course, that’s a big if.

2009 Georgia Season Preview- Offense

With less than 24 hours until kickoff. I thought I would go ahead and do the Georgia season preview. Let’s start with the offense.

With all the talk about Knowshon Moreno and Matthew Stafford being gone, people forget that Joe Cox was a Parade All-American who put up ridiculous stats at national power Independence high school. 66 TDs and only 5 picks?! So Georgia will be fine with him leading the team.

Proud owner of a 13-1 TD to INT ratio

The running back position is a lot sketchier, especially with Caleb Kings injury issues and Richard Samuel’s fumble problems. But Georgia won at least ten games a season without a star running back during the 2002-2005 seasons. In fact, the Dawgs’ rushing attack was actually below average last year as compared to that era.  Don’t believe me?  Check out the stats:

Georgia doesn't need a star RB

Don’t forget that the fullback is a key cog in Mark Richt’s offense.  I’m quite a fan of the projected starter Shaun Chapas, but significantly less fond of his backup Fred Munzenmaier.

As far as receivers go, everyone knows that A.J. Green is the man.

It's a bird! It's a plane! No, it's A.J. Green!

I’m also pretty excited about Michael Moore’s breakout near the end of last season.  Kris Durham being out for the season hurts some, but Tavarres King returning from injury cancels that out.  Sophomore Israel Troupe and true freshman Marlon Brown were highly rated recruits. This group certainly has plenty of talent; let’s just hope that they aren’t plagued by drops and chronic underachievement as some of their predecessors were.

So that brings us to the offensive line.  I love the potential of this group, so long as they prove that they have some durability.  Tons of experience means that they’ve been ranked as the top unit in the SEC by most pundits.  The star is the forgotten man, Trinton Sturdivant, but there are a ton of quality guys in this group- Clint Boling, Ben Jones, Vince Vance. I’m looking for them to be the key part of the Georgia offense this year.

The spot that worries me most is tight end. Former starter Bruce Figgins is suspended for the first six games, leaving Aron White as the clear-cut starter. What’s most worrisome is that two true freshmen, Orson Charles and Arthur Lynch appear to be the next best guys. This really makes me worry about those two tight end sets that Georgia likes to run. Both guys have a nice high school resume, however, so perhaps they’ll be okay.

All in all, I expect a pretty good season from the Georgia offense. Will they score in bunches like the Gators? Probably not. But they will rank in the upper echelon of the SEC.

The 2009 season is officially underway

I woke up this morning and it wasn’t the offseason. Finally. I took the day off work today to stay up late and catch that Boise State-Oregon game last night. Even if the game didn’t live up to the hype, it was still worth it. Let’s do some quick hits:

1.  The same Oregon team that was last seen beating up on Oklahoma State had more safeties than first downs in the first half of list night’s game. This is the same offense that scored more than 50 ppg in their last three contests of 2008- almost. Although they returned their quarterback and a 1000-yard rusher, they actually have four new faces on the offensive line.  However, it really seemed to me that the big factor in last night’s game was coaching.  Chip Kelly did not have Oregon ready to play a game on the blue turf in his first outing as head coach.  They came out flat and got crushed.  They also had a hard time controlling their emotions and it all spilled over when RB LeGarrette Blount punched Boise defensive end Byron Hout.

Wipe that smile off your face, boy!

Now clearly Hout was being a douchebag, but that’s no excuse.  Still some of the blame for this must rest on Kelly, who clearly did not properly manage his team’s emotions in the last minutes of what must have been a crushing defeat.

2. Does this mean that Oklahoma State could be (gasp!) overrated? I think so. They made Oregon look good last season and not that much has changed for the Ducks. I’m looking for Georgia to come out and maim them (figuratively speaking, of course) in the game tomorrow.

There will be blood!

3. Everybody is saying that the South Carolina-NC State game was terrible, but I really enjoyed it. South Carolina’s defense was great and that is worrisome. Remember when they held Stafford and Co. to one TD last season? Or worse, remember the last time they came into Stanford Stadium? Did you know that they finished ranked #13 in total defense last season?

South Carolina's defense is underrated

Anyway, I’m getting ahead of myself; we don’t play the Cocks for a week and tomorrow’s game is the theme of the hour. Here is a link to a very comprehensive preview. I’ve got my own (less comprehensive) version coming up in the next post.

Why Georgia is better than Florida

The season kicks off in just over four days and the Dawgs’ opener is less than a week away. How exciting! It feels like the offseason has lasted forever. To help everyone get into the football spirit, I have come up with three reasons why Georgia is better than Florida.

This is anti-Florida space!

1. Georgia schedules more agressively. Since the advent of the 12-game season, both Georgia and Florida have three games on their schedule that they can choose. This year, both teams scheduled an FCS opponent (Georgia-Tennessee Tech and Florida-Charleston Southern). That’s where the similarities end, however. Florida, in an apparent attempt to tack a Sun Belt title onto their resume, scheduled Troy and FIU. Georgia decided to play Oklahoma State and Arizona State. Sure, the Dawgs might lose more than Florida, but at least the Georgia fans will have an exciting game week in and week out. That’s what’s really important to me.

2. Georgia’s quarterback is cooler than Florida’s.

This is anti-Tebow space!

Tim Tebow’s offseasons have included being a hero and not focusing on haters. Joe Cox’ past exploits include being spooned by Matthew Stafford and being caught trying to use a fake ID at Chili’s. (Sorry, no link for this one, but I swear that it’s true- Chase, if you read this, put ths story in the comments.) So, clearly, Georgia has a much cooler dude at the QB position.

3. Mark Richt is not the devil, which, as this picture obviously proves, is more than Urban Meyer can claim.

This is anti-Meyer space!

Need I say more?

The 2009 Season is Coming!

Fall practice is in full swing and all of the preseason rankings are out, so it’s time to get this blog rolling again. The post-Stafford/Moreno era is almost here, so I thought I would start with a list of some of the top plays made by players returning to school at Georgia.

1. Joe Cox leads game-winning drive against Colorado in 2006.

This is the one game during which Joe Cox shined. He started against Ole Miss the following week, but after some struggles, ended up on the bench in favor of some dude wearing the number 7. Here’s hoping we see a bunch of game-winning drives this season.

2. Prince Miller’s 92-yard punt return against Alabama in 2008.

This game was one of the darkest moments in the recent history of Georgia. Still, this was a nice punt return. I don’t think that I was the only one that thought, at the time, that this play had given us a chance to win the game.

3. Darryl Gamble’s two interception return TDs against LSU in 2008 (Check out the 0:10 and 2:45 marks).

This was an awesome game (mostly) and these two picks bookended the Georgia scoring barrage. Here’s hoping for great things from Gamble and his mates on defense this year.

4. Rennie Curran’s forced fumble and Reshad Jones’ last-second pick helps Georgia hang on to a win against South Carolina in 2008 (Check out the 2:23 and 2:10 marks, respectively).

How in the world did the Dawgs hang on and win this one? With these two big-time plays from returning defenders. Rennie Curran was the leading tackler last year and ought to be a leader on defense. Reshad Jones has a chance to be really good in the secondary this year.

5. Demarcus Dobbs’ 78-yard interception return TD against Central Michigan (check out the 2:07 mark).

I’m not a huge fan of including plays made in “gimme games” but this was a really nice return by a defensive end. Plus, I need a reason to believe in the DEs this year.

6. Speaking of Demarcus Dobbs, how about his game-saving INT against Kentucky (0:55 mark)?
This was another game-saving play (there were a lot last year). Seriously, Georgia lacks only depth at Defensive End. They’ve got the talent.

7. While we’re on the topic of defensive ends, how about Rod Battle’s forced fumble against Vandy in 2007 (check out the 0:24 mark)? Is this play really not up on YouTube? Then it must be the most unappreciated play of the entire 2007 season (or possibly copy-righted). Not only was this a game-saver, this was a season-saver.

8. A.J Green’s game-winning reception against Kentucky (0:39 mark). Green had a great season as a true freshman. This was the first of two game-winners on the season. Can he match that total in 2009?

9. A.J. Green’s game winning reception against Auburn in 2008 (0:40 mark).

For the second straight week, A.J. Green comes through in the clutch. It should be great to have a talent like that on the team this season.

I know there are a bunch more of these out there. Which ones did I miss? Let me know in the comments.

It’s the Offseason….

Well, we are now more than two weeks into the long offseason and I’m trying to fight my Saturday boredom. I’m also rolling out a couple new features- links and images. Let’s talk about the happenings in the sport since I last checked in 23 days ago.

-Florida won the National Championship. How nice. Such a fitting end to a season that Georgia started at #1. I’m still mad at the FOX commentators for basically (how do I put this nicely?) “aggressively lauding” Tim Tebow (my favorite part is at the 1:38 mark) during the entire telecast of the national title game. I am SO happy that network’s coverage of the BCS games ends after next season. Bring on ESPN, who will do a fabulous job of covering the game (they almost always do).

-As if we haven’t heard enough about him, Tebow is returning for his senior year. So is Brandon Spikes, which means that the entirety of the Gators’ mean defense will return in 2009. Meanwhile Knowshon Moreno, Matthew Stafford, and Asher Allen are all leaving Georgia. Gee, I can’t wait for these teams to play again.

-I’ve been thinking, and I don’t blame any of the players that go pro early. Really, what are the pluses of being a college football player? Partying? Obviously the players do it, but many get arrested and/or hurt during the offseason. And during the season, it’s all but out. Yeah, partying is not a reason to stay. So maybe they should stay for the school? Please. The school just uses the football team. These guys are paraded out there every Saturday just so the school can get all this exposure and publicity in the media and the athletic department can charge $10,000 per ticket. The reward? A scholarship to a major in “Sports Management” that carries no credibility. So maybe they should stay for the fans? Right. The women?

Yeah, that’s a reason to stay.

Well, that’s all for now. Check back periodically; I’m hoping to post at least once every couple weeks until we get close to the season.